Holiday travel forecast: Higher fares, continued fees, bigger crowds
Apropos of the autumnal equinox and the grand openings of pumpkin patches all around the United States, travel experts issued their holiday travel forecasts this week, unanimously predicting a season of higher fares, Grinch-like fees, and record crowds. Peripatetic pundits suggested holiday travellers should book flights over the river and through the woods as soon as possible, so that they can stay slightly ahead of surging holiday demand. More importantly, they strongly recommended travellers manage their trips to stay out of peak Thanksgiving travel hours—the day before the holiday and the Sunday afterward.
“Especially families travelling with children should try to fly Monday or Tuesday before Thanksgiving,” urges Rebecca Marston, travel and leisure analyst at Patterson-Forbes Partners, “because more flights will be available, fares will be slightly lower, and airports will be a lot less crowded.” Looking at average fares and pricing structures among the most popular airlines, Marston recommends that families should try to travel Monday to Monday or Tuesday to Tuesday, because many airlines still discount weekday travel, and major American hotel chains offer deep discounts on weekend accommodations. Marston warns that travellers should expect not only the now-standard baggage fees but also much higher fees for reservation changes and higher charges for in-flight food and beverages. She pointed out that United Airlines now plans to charge $300 for a change in holiday travel plans.
Travel industry monitors report that the average fare for a holiday flight will ring-up at approximately $365, up about 15% from last year. They cite continued high fuel prices as the primary reason for the increase, but they also suggest economic recovery is releasing pent-up demand, driving-up fares.
Southwest merger with AirTran brings no relief.
On Monday, Wall Street welcomed news of Southwest’s acquisition of AirTran, which will give the United States’ leading discount air carrier access to prime space along the eastern seaboard. Southwest continues to lead the industry in volume, profit, and value, refusing to impose baggage fees and keeping fares below its competitors’. The merger still must pass regulatory and anti-trust obstacles before it takes effect, so that holiday travellers will not benefit until Thanksgiving and Christmas, 2011.
